Is Solar Still Worth It in Pakistan in 2026? A Real Payback Calculation

Yes, solar is still worth it in Pakistan in 2026 for most households paying the middle and upper tariff slabs, even under net billing. The catch is that the payback now depends mostly on how much of your solar you use yourself. In the 5 kW example below, every Rs100,000 you spend on the system comes back in roughly 5 to 10 months of savings, depending on your slab and habits. A system that matches your daytime load usually pays for itself in a few years and then keeps working for many more.

Below, step by step, is how to work it out for your own house, using tariff and buyback figures reported up to October 2026. Where a number is uncertain, we say so.

What changed in 2026, in one paragraph

Three things changed the maths. Panels got more expensive: imported panels went from about Rs22 per watt at the 2025 low to around Rs33 to 40 per watt by April 2026, according to the Express Tribune and Dawn. Exports got cheaper: since 9 February 2026, new solar users are on net billing, where exported units earn about Rs10 to 11 each (linked to the national average energy purchase price) instead of offsetting imports one for one. And fixed monthly charges were extended to more domestic consumers in February 2026, a cost solar cannot reduce. Grid electricity stayed expensive, though, and that is what keeps solar worth it.

The payback calculation, step by step

The method below works for any system size. We use a 5 kW home system because it is the most common, but you can swap in your own numbers at each step.

Step 1: Count how many units the system will make

Take a 5 kW system, the most common size for a 5 to 10 marla house. A realistic planning figure for most Punjab cities is about 4 units per kW per day averaged over the year, after losses for heat, dust, wiring and the inverter. Lahore averages about 5.2 peak sun hours, Karachi 5.6 and Islamabad 5.0, so Karachi does a little better and Islamabad a little worse.

• 5 kW x 4 units = 20 units a day
• About 600 units a month
• About 7,300 units a year

Expect big seasonal swings. Typical production data for Lahore shows output per kW in winter at well under two-thirds of what you get in spring and summer, and fog and smog days can be much worse. The annual average is what matters for payback, but do not panic when your December bill is higher than your June one.

With 585 W panels, a 5 kW system needs 9 panels. Use the solar calculator if you want to size it from your own bill first.

Step 2: Split the units into “used” and “exported”

This is the step most dealer quotes skip, and under net billing it is the most important one.

• Units you use while the sun is up replace units you would otherwise buy from the grid. Each one is worth your marginal tariff, the rate on the last slab you would have paid.
• Units you export earn the buyback rate, about Rs10 to 11. We use Rs10.5 below, the middle of the reported range.

How much you use directly depends on your house. A family with an AC running in the afternoon, a fridge, a water motor and someone at home all day might use 60 to 70% of a 5 kW system’s output directly. A house that is empty from 8 am to 5 pm might use 30% or less. If you are not sure, look at your current bill split between day and night, or watch your inverter app for a week after installation and adjust.

Step 3: Put a rupee value on a year of solar

Now the core table. It shows yearly savings from 7,300 units at three marginal tariff rates and three levels of self-use. The tariff rates are domestic slab rates for 2026 as reported by The Nation in January 2026 (before taxes): Rs28.91 for the 101 to 200 unit slab, Rs40.22 for the 401 to 500 slab and Rs47.69 above 700 units. The Nation’s article was inconsistent in places, so check your own bill, but these are reasonable reference points.

Your marginal tariff	30% used directly	50% used directly	70% used directly
Rs28.91 per unit	about Rs117,000 a year	about Rs144,000 a year	about Rs171,000 a year
Rs40.22 per unit	about Rs142,000 a year	about Rs185,000 a year	about Rs229,000 a year
Rs47.69 per unit	about Rs158,000 a year	about Rs212,000 a year	about Rs267,000 a year

Two things jump out. First, how you use the solar matters about as much as which slab you are on: a careful 400-unit household can save as much as a careless 800-unit one. Second, these figures are before taxes. Taxes on electricity are charged on top of the energy cost, so each grid unit you avoid saves a little more than the tariff alone. We have left that out to stay on the conservative side.

Step 4: Turn savings into a payback period

Payback is simply the total system cost divided by the yearly saving. Because quotes vary so much between cities, brands and installers, we show it as months to recover every Rs100,000 you spend:

Your marginal tariff	30% used directly	50% used directly	70% used directly
Rs28.91	about 10.3 months	about 8.3 months	about 7.0 months
Rs40.22	about 8.5 months	about 6.5 months	about 5.3 months
Rs47.69	about 7.6 months	about 5.6 months	about 4.5 months

To use it, add up your full quote. The panels for a 5 kW system with 585 W modules cost about Rs 210,600 at today’s rates. Add the inverter, mounting structure, DC and AC cabling, protection devices, earthing and labour; our installation cost guide lists what should be in a proper quote. Divide the total by 100,000 and multiply by the figure from your row and column.

Example: if your complete on-grid quote came to ten lakh rupees and you sit in the Rs40.22 row using half your solar directly, payback is about 10 x 6.5 = 65 months, or a little over five years. Use your own quote rather than this illustration. For reference, Dawn reported in April 2026 that home systems were costing from about Rs200,000 to Rs500,000 and up, a wide range that reflects very different system sizes.

Dealers in the same Dawn report quoted paybacks of 1 to 3 years. That is a vendor claim, not an independent figure, and in our calculation it is only achievable for a small, well-used system on a high slab. Run your own numbers before you accept it.

What can make the payback longer or shorter

Longer

• Oversizing for export. Panels beyond your daytime need mostly export at about Rs10 to 11 per unit. Under the old net metering rules extra panels paid off. Under net billing in Pakistan they stretch your payback.
• Dropping into a cheaper slab. If solar pushes your monthly imports down into a lower slab, each avoided unit is worth that lower rate, not the top rate you used to pay. The table above already shows how much this matters.
• Fixed charges. Reported at roughly Rs200 to Rs675 a month depending on slab, these stay on your bill whatever you do. They do not change payback, since you pay them with or without solar, but they mean your bill never reaches zero.
• Winter, fog and dust. Dirty panels in a Punjab smog season can lose a noticeable share of output. Regular panel cleaning protects your numbers.
• Inverter replacement. Panels typically carry long performance warranties, but inverters often need replacing during a system’s life. Set aside money for one replacement.
• Batteries. A battery adds cost up front and wears out. It can improve your economics only if it stores cheap export units for expensive night use, or if load shedding is costing you money.

Shorter

• Being grandfathered. If you applied for net metering up to 8 February 2026, NEPRA’s April amendment lets you keep the old netting and the roughly Rs26 per unit buyback reported by Dawn until your agreement expires. Exports are worth far more to you than in our table.
• Shifting loads to daytime. Run the motor, washing machine, iron and the bedroom AC before sunset. Moving self-use from 30% to 60% saves more than any panel upgrade.
• Tariff increases. Grid tariffs are rebased every January and adjusted through the year. Every increase makes your solar units worth more. We do not build future increases into the table, because nobody can promise them.
• A good per-watt price. Today’s market average is Rs 41.3 per watt. Getting a fair price on A-grade stock, rather than paying for a brand name, shortens payback directly.

Three households, three answers

The 300-unit protected household

If you are on the protected tariff, paying around Rs10 to 13 per unit before taxes on the lower slabs, solar’s savings per unit are small and payback is long. A small system can still make sense for load shedding backup, but buy it for reliability, not for savings. Look at the government solar schemes first, since some are aimed at exactly this group.

The 600-unit family with daytime use

This is solar’s sweet spot. High marginal rate, someone home during the day, AC load in the afternoon. A 5 kW system sized to daytime use lands in the shorter-payback corner of the table, with or without net billing.

The 900-unit house that is empty all day

The tariff is high, but most of the solar would be exported at about Rs10 to 11. This household needs a battery or a smaller system plus load shifting. Simply installing 10 kW and hoping net billing pays it off is the old playbook, and it no longer works.

A quick check before you sign

Before you accept any quote, run these five checks. They take ten minutes and catch most of the problems that ruin a payback calculation.

1. Your quote states the panel brand, wattage and cell type, and the inverter brand and model.
2. The system size matches your daytime load, not just your monthly total.
3. You know your marginal slab rate from a recent bill, not from memory.
4. You have estimated what share of your solar you will use directly, and placed yourself in the right column of the tables above.
5. You have allowed for one inverter replacement and regular cleaning over the system’s life.

So, is solar worth it in Pakistan?

For most middle and upper-slab households, yes. A rooftop system still produces electricity for many years after it has paid for itself, and our panel lifespan guide explains how long modern N-type panels last in Pakistani heat. What changed in 2026 is the way you get the value. Size the system for daytime use, use the solar yourself, treat exports as a small bonus, and run the payback with your own quote and your own bill rather than a dealer’s headline figure.

If the upfront cost is the barrier, compare cash prices with solar on instalments, and remember that the interest you pay adds to your payback period. Then price your full system on our 5 kW solar system price page and plug it into Step 4.